Housing Intelligence

Market Conditions & Supply Dynamics

The housing market remains constrained by structural resale supply shortages. With over 60% of outstanding mortgages locked in at rates under 4.0%, home move-up activity remains muted, shifting demand toward new construction developments and build-to-rent communities.

Housing Affordability Index Structure

Housing affordability models measure the proportion of median household income required to service principal, interest, taxes, and insurance (PITI) on a median-priced home.

Mortgage Intelligence

Mortgage rate movements directly govern homebuyer purchasing capacity. The spread between 30-year fixed mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields remains wide (+250 bps vs historical average +170 bps), driven by elevated primary-secondary spread dynamics and MBS volatility.

Rent vs Buy Decision Framework

Determining whether to buy or rent requires assessing multi-year unrecoverable costs (mortgage interest, property taxes, maintenance, insurance, capital opportunity cost vs rent payments). Read our decision framework research:

• Decision-Centered Design in High-Consequence Tools
• Building Original Research Assets for Market Transparency

Regional Considerations & Geographic Divergence

Regional divergence is pronounced. Sunbelt markets (Florida, Texas, Southeast) show expanding inventory levels and moderating price growth, while Coastal northeast and Midwest markets retain ultra-tight inventory and firm pricing power.